Berger, Tino

[["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","1113"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.issue","5"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.journal","Macroeconomic Dynamics"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","1133"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.volume","22"],["dc.contributor.author","Berger, Tino"],["dc.contributor.author","Grabert, Sibylle"],["dc.date.accessioned","2020-12-10T15:22:21Z"],["dc.date.available","2020-12-10T15:22:21Z"],["dc.date.issued","2018"],["dc.description.abstract","We identify international output and inflation uncertainty and analyze their impact on individual countries' macroeconomic performance. Output and inflation uncertainty on an international level is measured through the conditional variances of common factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of international and country-specific uncertainty is analyzed by including the conditional variances as regressors. We find increases in uncertainty during the first and second oil crisis, the 1980s and 1990s recessions as well as the recent Great Recession to be confined to the international level. The effect of international uncertainty results to be highly significant and unambiguously negative on countries' output growth and inflation rates whereas the impact of country-specific uncertainty is very mixed."],["dc.identifier.doi","10.1017/S1365100516000596"],["dc.identifier.eissn","1469-8056"],["dc.identifier.issn","1365-1005"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/73369"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.intern","DOI Import GROB-354"],["dc.notes.status","zu prüfen"],["dc.title","International Output and Inflation Uncertainty and their Impact on Countries' Macroeconomic Performance. Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Garch-In-Mean Model"],["dc.type","journal_article"],["dc.type.internalPublication","yes"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]

[["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","694"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.issue","5"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.journal","Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","716"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.volume","78"],["dc.contributor.author","Berger, Tino"],["dc.contributor.author","Grabert, Sibylle"],["dc.contributor.author","Kempa, Bernd"],["dc.date.accessioned","2018-11-07T10:07:31Z"],["dc.date.available","2018-11-07T10:07:31Z"],["dc.date.issued","2016"],["dc.description.abstract","We identify global and country-specific measures of output growth uncertainty for a large OECD country sample by means of a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. We find evidence for major bouts of global uncertainty in the early 1970s and late 2000s, and a number of periods with elevated levels of either global or national uncertainty, particularly in the early 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. VAR impulse responses of national macroeconomic variables to our estimated measures of uncertainty reveal that global uncertainty is the major driver of macroeconomic performance in most countries, whereas the impact of national uncertainty is small and frequently insignificant. We also find that uncertainty is transmitted primarily through investment and trade flows rather than through consumption demand."],["dc.identifier.doi","10.1111/obes.12118"],["dc.identifier.isi","000387342300005"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/39294"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.status","zu prüfen"],["dc.notes.submitter","Najko"],["dc.publisher","Wiley"],["dc.relation.issn","1468-0084"],["dc.relation.issn","0305-9049"],["dc.title","Global and Country-Specific Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance"],["dc.type","journal_article"],["dc.type.internalPublication","yes"],["dc.type.peerReviewed","yes"],["dc.type.status","published"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]

[["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","42"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.journal","Journal of Macroeconomics"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","56"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.volume","53"],["dc.contributor.author","Berger, Tino"],["dc.contributor.author","Grabert, Sibylle"],["dc.contributor.author","Kempa, Bernd"],["dc.date.accessioned","2018-11-08T16:39:24Z"],["dc.date.available","2018-11-08T16:39:24Z"],["dc.date.issued","2017"],["dc.description.abstract","We empirically identify global macroeconomic uncertainty using a dynamic factor model, where the conditional variances of all factors are modeled as stochastic volatility processes. Applying this methodology to OECD data, we find the early 1970s and early 1980s recessions as well as the recent Great Recession of the late 2000s to be associated with increases in uncertainty at the global level, but heightened uncertainty during the early 1990s and 2000s slowdowns to be mostly confined to the national levels. We also find that global uncertainty unambiguously lowers national growth rates and raises national inflation rates, and that key macroeconomic variables like oil, commodity and stock prices as well as global liquidity act as drivers of the global dimension of uncertainty."],["dc.identifier.doi","10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.05.005"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/56781"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.status","final"],["dc.title","Global macroeconomic uncertainty"],["dc.type","journal_article"],["dc.type.internalPublication","unknown"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]