Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • 2015Journal Article
    [["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","87"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.journal","Climate Research"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","105"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.volume","65"],["dc.contributor.author","Pirttioja, N."],["dc.contributor.author","Carter, T. R."],["dc.contributor.author","Fronzek, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Bindi, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Hoffmann, H."],["dc.contributor.author","Palosuo, T."],["dc.contributor.author","Ruiz-Ramos, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Tao, F."],["dc.contributor.author","Trnka, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Acutis, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Asseng, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Baranowski, P."],["dc.contributor.author","Basso, B."],["dc.contributor.author","Bodin, P."],["dc.contributor.author","Buis, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Cammarano, D."],["dc.contributor.author","Deligios, P."],["dc.contributor.author","Destain, M. F."],["dc.contributor.author","Dumont, B."],["dc.contributor.author","Ewert, F."],["dc.contributor.author","Ferrise, R."],["dc.contributor.author","François, L."],["dc.contributor.author","Gaiser, T."],["dc.contributor.author","Hlavinka, P."],["dc.contributor.author","Jacquemin, I."],["dc.contributor.author","Kersebaum, K. C."],["dc.contributor.author","Kollas, C."],["dc.contributor.author","Krzyszczak, J."],["dc.contributor.author","Lorite, I. J."],["dc.contributor.author","Minet, J."],["dc.contributor.author","Mínguez, M. I."],["dc.contributor.author","Montesino, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Moriondo, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Müller, C."],["dc.contributor.author","Nendel, C."],["dc.contributor.author","Öztürk, I."],["dc.contributor.author","Perego, A."],["dc.contributor.author","Rodríguez, A."],["dc.contributor.author","Ruane, A. C."],["dc.contributor.author","Ruget, F."],["dc.contributor.author","Sanna, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Semenov, M. A."],["dc.contributor.author","Slawinski, C."],["dc.contributor.author","Stratonovitch, P."],["dc.contributor.author","Supit, I."],["dc.contributor.author","Waha, K."],["dc.contributor.author","Wang, E."],["dc.contributor.author","Wu, L."],["dc.contributor.author","Zhao, Z."],["dc.contributor.author","Rötter, R. P."],["dc.date.accessioned","2017-09-07T11:47:54Z"],["dc.date.available","2017-09-07T11:47:54Z"],["dc.date.issued","2015"],["dc.description.abstract","This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development."],["dc.identifier.doi","10.3354/cr01322"],["dc.identifier.gro","3149390"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/6061"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.intern","Roetter Crossref Import"],["dc.notes.status","final"],["dc.notes.submitter","chake"],["dc.relation.issn","0936-577X"],["dc.title","Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces"],["dc.type","journal_article"],["dc.type.internalPublication","no"],["dc.type.peerReviewed","no"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]
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  • 2009Conference Paper
    [["dc.bibliographiccitation.artnumber","372040"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.seriesnr","6"],["dc.contributor.author","Rötter, Reimund"],["dc.contributor.author","Kahiluoto, H. M."],["dc.contributor.author","Lehtonen, H."],["dc.contributor.author","Aakkula, J."],["dc.contributor.author","Carter, T. R."],["dc.date.accessioned","2018-06-14T12:27:23Z"],["dc.date.available","2018-06-14T12:27:23Z"],["dc.date.issued","2009"],["dc.identifier.doi","10.1088/1755-1307/6/37/372040"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/15049"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.status","zu prüfen"],["dc.publisher","IOP Publishing"],["dc.publisher.place","Bristol"],["dc.relation.conference","International Scientific Congress on Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions"],["dc.relation.crisseries","IOP Conference Series. Earth and Environmental Science"],["dc.relation.eventend","2009-03-12"],["dc.relation.eventlocation","Copenhagen, Denmark"],["dc.relation.eventstart","2009-03-10"],["dc.relation.isbn","978-1-5108-1293-2"],["dc.relation.ispartof","Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions"],["dc.relation.ispartofseries","IOP conference series. Earth and Environmental science; 6"],["dc.title","A modeling framework for assessing adaptation options of Finnish agriculture to climate variability and change"],["dc.type","conference_paper"],["dc.type.internalPublication","unknown"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]
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  • 2018Journal Article
    [["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","260"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.journal","Agricultural Systems"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","274"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.volume","159"],["dc.contributor.author","Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita"],["dc.contributor.author","Ferrise, R."],["dc.contributor.author","Rodríguez, A."],["dc.contributor.author","Lorite, I. J."],["dc.contributor.author","Bindi, Marco"],["dc.contributor.author","Carter, T. R."],["dc.contributor.author","Fronzek, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Palosuo, Taru"],["dc.contributor.author","Pirttioja, N."],["dc.contributor.author","Baranowski, P."],["dc.contributor.author","Buis, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Cammarano, Davide"],["dc.contributor.author","Chen, Y."],["dc.contributor.author","Dumont, B."],["dc.contributor.author","Ewert, Frank"],["dc.contributor.author","Gaiser, Thomas"],["dc.contributor.author","Hlavinka, Petr"],["dc.contributor.author","Hoffmann, Holger"],["dc.contributor.author","Höhn, Jukka G."],["dc.contributor.author","Jurecka, F."],["dc.contributor.author","Kersebaum, Kurt Christian"],["dc.contributor.author","Krzyszczak, J."],["dc.contributor.author","Lana, Marcos"],["dc.contributor.author","Mechiche-Alami, A."],["dc.contributor.author","Minet, J."],["dc.contributor.author","Montesino, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Nendel, Claas"],["dc.contributor.author","Porter, J. R."],["dc.contributor.author","Ruget, F."],["dc.contributor.author","Semenov, Mikhail A."],["dc.contributor.author","Steinmetz, Z."],["dc.contributor.author","Stratonovitch, Pierre"],["dc.contributor.author","Sun, Jian"],["dc.contributor.author","Tao, Fulu"],["dc.contributor.author","Trnka, Mirek"],["dc.contributor.author","Wit, Allard de"],["dc.contributor.author","Rötter, Reimund P."],["dc.date.accessioned","2017-09-07T11:47:57Z"],["dc.date.available","2017-09-07T11:47:57Z"],["dc.date.issued","2018"],["dc.description.abstract","Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty."],["dc.identifier.doi","10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009"],["dc.identifier.gro","3149417"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/6091"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.intern","Roetter Crossref Import"],["dc.notes.status","zu prüfen"],["dc.notes.submitter","chake"],["dc.relation.issn","0308-521X"],["dc.title","Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment"],["dc.type","journal_article"],["dc.type.internalPublication","unknown"],["dc.type.peerReviewed","no"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]
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  • 2010Conference Paper
    [["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","325"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","326"],["dc.contributor.author","Virtanen, N. K."],["dc.contributor.author","Rötter, R. P."],["dc.contributor.author","Palosuo, Taru"],["dc.contributor.author","Salo, T."],["dc.contributor.author","Fronzek, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Grönroos, J."],["dc.contributor.author","Carter, T. R."],["dc.contributor.author","Wolf, J."],["dc.contributor.editor","Shili-Touzi, I."],["dc.contributor.editor","Wery, J."],["dc.contributor.editor","Perrin, A."],["dc.date.accessioned","2018-06-14T12:04:38Z"],["dc.date.available","2018-06-14T12:04:38Z"],["dc.date.issued","2010"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/15046"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.status","final"],["dc.relation.conference","Agro2010 the XIth ESA congress"],["dc.relation.eventend","2010-09-03"],["dc.relation.eventlocation","Montpellier, France"],["dc.relation.eventstart","2010-08-29"],["dc.relation.ispartof","Proceedings of Agro2010 the XIth ESA congress"],["dc.title","Development and evaluation of a crop modelling system for regional yield estimation"],["dc.type","conference_paper"],["dc.type.internalPublication","unknown"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]
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  • 2011Journal Article
    [["dc.bibliographiccitation.firstpage","205"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.issue","4"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.journal","European Journal of Agronomy"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.lastpage","214"],["dc.bibliographiccitation.volume","35"],["dc.contributor.author","Rötter, R. P."],["dc.contributor.author","Palosuo, T."],["dc.contributor.author","Pirttioja, N. K."],["dc.contributor.author","Dubrovsky, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Salo, T."],["dc.contributor.author","Fronzek, S."],["dc.contributor.author","Aikasalo, R."],["dc.contributor.author","Trnka, M."],["dc.contributor.author","Ristolainen, A."],["dc.contributor.author","Carter, T. R."],["dc.date.accessioned","2018-05-19T17:12:15Z"],["dc.date.available","2018-05-19T17:12:15Z"],["dc.date.issued","2011"],["dc.description.abstract","In research to date, projected climate change has been considered to be beneficial for agriculture under Nordic conditions, where crop production is mainly limited by low temperatures resulting in short growing seasons. However, with the rapid increases in global mean temperature implied at the high end of the uncertainty range of current projections, which are typically amplified at high latitudes, conditions for crop production could change so dramatically that yields would be reduced, even accounting for the positive effects of CO2 fertilization. In this study, we used the WOFOST crop growth simulation model to examine crop yield responses to a set of plausible scenarios of climate change for Finland up to 2100, including some that exceed 4 °C global mean temperature increase relative to pre-industrial. We selected spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) as an indicator crop and calculated water-limited yields for two Finnish locations, Jokioinen and Jyväskylä and for a clay and a sandy soil. Scenarios included systematic increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation distribution and altered daily climatic variability using the M&Rfi weather generator. We also examined the effectiveness of a few adaptation options, such as shifts in sowing dates and hypothetical new crop cultivars. Increasing temperature reduced total growth duration and yield considerably, even with adjusted earlier sowing. A reduced number of rainy days had marked negative effects only in combination with increases in temperature of 4 °C or greater, leading to distinctly higher yield losses on the sandy soil than on the clay. Prolonged dry spells clearly increased yield variability. For scenarios with temperature increases of +6 °C and + 7°C, yield losses at Jokioinen were highest; losses at Jyväskylä were generally less pronounced. Neither CO2 fertilization nor adjusted sowing could compensate the yield losses from temperature changes exceeding +4 °C. On clay soils, yield loss could be compensated by new cultivars. For sandy soils even with new cultivars, there would be yield loss at temperature increases exceeding +3 °C. It can be concluded that the positive effects of climate warming and elevated CO2 concentrations on cereal production at high latitudes are likely to be reversed at temperature increases exceeding 4 °C, with a high risk of marked yield loss. Only plant breeding efforts aimed at increasing yield potential jointly with drought resistance and adjusted agronomic practices, such as sowing, and adequate nitrogen fertilizer management and plant protection, holds a prospect of partly restoring yield levels and reducing the risks of yield shortfall."],["dc.identifier.doi","10.1016/j.eja.2011.06.003"],["dc.identifier.uri","https://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?gro-2/14686"],["dc.language.iso","en"],["dc.notes.status","final"],["dc.title","What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4°C? A model-based assessment"],["dc.type","journal_article"],["dc.type.internalPublication","unknown"],["dspace.entity.type","Publication"]]
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