Explaining the puzzling persistence of restrictions on seasonal farm labour in Germany

The regulation of seasonal foreign farm labour (SFFL) in Germany distorts market outcomes and produces no significant benefits for any of the affected groups. Analysis of the media discourse on this regulation indicates that its persistence can be attributed to the political sensitivity of unemployment and related issues in Germany. To reach these conclusions, we propose a new method for the analysis of discourse data based on a Poisson change point model, and demonstrate that exogenous factors such as unemployment in Germany can explain structural breaks in the media discourse on SFFL in Germany.